Oil prices return to 63.50 mark, gold prices wait for Powell Jackson Hall to speak, Russia and Ukraine blame each other to increase geopolitical tensions

Basic news

On Friday (August 22), spot gold trading was around $3337.37/ounce, gold prices fell slightly on Thursday, the dollar strengthened, and investors were waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall seminar to understand the letter of the direction of the US policy; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.48/barrel, oil prices rose Thursday, as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of causing the peace process to stagnate, and earlier U.S. data showed signs of strong demand from the largest oil consumer.

Stock Market

Main U.S. stock indexes fell on Thursday, with investors worried that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell might make hawkish remarks to trigger market volatility, while retail giant Walmart's quarterly financial report also suppressed market sentiment.

All eyes are focused on Jackson Hall Economic Policy Seminar, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to speak at 22:00 Beijing time. Traders will closely monitor his statements to find clues about whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September, especially in the context of recent weak job markets.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRAResearch, said: "We still think the Fed has about 80% chance of rate cuts, but this expectation is being questioned. Therefore, this uncertainty is being incorporated into investors' forecasts. Investors' attitude is, 'Okay? Let's take profits now.'"

Traders at the Fed's 25 basis points cut in September, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).The bet has dropped to 79% from 99.9% last week. Due to light trading volume in August, any market volatility after Powell's speech could be amplified.

On Thursday, U.S. exchanges sold 12.28 billion shares, www.xm-links.compared with an average daily trading volume of 17.08 billion shares over the past 20 trading days. "The nervousness about Powell's speech at Jackson Hall does suppress risk appetite to a certain extent. If the speech is more hawkish than expected, it could trigger a clear sell-off."

Several policy makers, including Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamake, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, and Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid, have expressed caution recently and stressed the need to rely on data to make decisions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 44,785.50 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.40% to 6,370.17 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.34% to 21,100.31 points.

A private report shows that the pace of business activity accelerated in August reflects the www.xm-links.complex environment facing the Federal Reserve, and the bank will review interest rates next month. Another report also showed that U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose in July. After the report was released, rising U.S. Treasury yields also put pressure on the stock market.

Nine of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell, with the consumer staple leading the decline, down 1.18%, after Wal-Mart raised its fiscal year sales and profits as strong demand for shoppers at all levels of income but quarterly profits failed to meet expectations and said tariffs led to higher costs.

The retailer's share price fell 4.5%. Reports from retailers such as Target and Home Depot have attracted much attention this week as investors are evaluating the impact of U.S. tariffs on consumer spending. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said: "The situation in the consumer sector is mixed, with economic uncertainty, both in the job market and the price (ups) brought about by tariff transfer."

The sharp drop in technology stocks earlier this week seemed to have lost some momentum, but Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and AMD remained weaker.

The sharp drop shows that investors are worried that tech stocks that have soared from April lows are overvalued, and Washington's growing intervention in the industry has also raised vigilance.

In other stocks, Coty plummeted 21.4%, after the beauty product maker expected sales to decline this quarter due to weak U.S. consumption.

Gold market

Gold prices fell slightly on Thursday, with the dollar strengthening, and investors awaiting a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hall seminar to understand the signals of U.S. policy direction.

Spot gold fell 0.3%, to $3337.95 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to settle at $3,386.50.

Powell is expected to speak on Friday at the Jackson Hall meeting on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy stance. "If Powell hints that a rate cut will be cut in September, I don't think there will be much trend because the market has expected this." He added: "If he said we may cut rates again in October, November or December, I think the dollar may weaken and gold prices may rise." The number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased significantly last week, marking the biggest increase in nearly three months.

Fitch-owned research www.xm-links.company BMI raised its 2025 gold price forecast by $150 on Wednesday to $3,250 per ounce.

BMI said in a report: "The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and gold prices will remain high in the www.xm-links.coming weeks. Nevertheless, we believe that there will be limited room for gold prices to rise after the rate cut, as most of the gains have been digested by the market."

Spot silver rose 0.6% to $38.10 per ounce. Platinum rose 1.1% to $1,354.20. Palladium fell 0.6% to $1,107.41. Oil market

Oil prices rose nearly a dollar on Thursday, as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of stagnating the peace process, and earlier U.S. data showed signs of strong demand from the largest oil consumer.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.2% to close at $67.67 a barrel, a two-week high. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.3% to close at $63.52 a barrel. The road to peace in Ukraine remains unclear, and oil traders have become cautious in the past two weeks after hoped that U.S. President Trump would soon end the Russian-Ukrainian war through diplomatic negotiations.

After that, both Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of delaying the peace process. Russia launched a massive air strike on Thursday near Ukraine’s border with the EU, while Ukraine claimed to have attacked a Russian oil refinery.

The oil trading consulting firm Ritterbuschand Associates told clients on Thursday that "some geopolitical risk premiums are slowly returning to the market," Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVMOil Associates, said the uncertainty in the peace talks meant the possibility of tougher sanctions on Russia again.

The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations last week, indicating strong demand and also supporting oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, www.xm-links.compared with 1.8 million barrels expected to drop by 1.8 million barrels.

Investors are also paying attention to central bank held in Jackson Hall, Wyomingmeeting to find signals that the Fed may cut interest rates next month. The annual gathering of central bank officials began Thursday, with Fed Chairman Powell scheduled to speak on Friday.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar strengthened on Thursday, with markets paying attention to the highly anticipated speech that Fed Chairman Powell will make on Friday, and investors hope to find new clues about whether the Fed may cut interest rates next month.

Early, U.S. employment report unexpectedly weakened in July, and traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut at its Sept. 16-17 meeting. But the risk of upward inflation remains an uncertainty as President Trump’s administration imposes new trade tariffs, leaving some policymakers cautious about easing policies.

The theme of this year's Jackson Hall Annual Meeting is "The Transformational Labor Market." “It may depend on how much Powell wants to use the rift in the labor market (to support his position). “Whether it is the employment data and its corrections, or the rising initial jobless claims data, constitute a narrative that he can focus on. ”

On Thursday, the dollar briefly gave up some of its gains after data showed the U.S. initial unemployment claims hit its biggest increase in nearly three months last week. Subsequently, another report showed that U.S. corporate activity accelerated in August, manufacturing rebounded, order growth hit a 18-month high, and the dollar's rise expanded again.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, rose 0.38% to 98.60 in late trading, and the euro fell 0.34% to 1.1611 in late trading. The Japanese yen fell 0.65% to 148.29 yen. The pound fell 0.27% to 1.342 US dollars

Goldman Sachs economists expect Fed Chairman Powell to adjust his statement at the July Federal Open Market www.xm-links.committee (FOMC) meeting in his speech Friday. At the time, he said the Fed was “in a good position” and could wait for more information before making decisions.

Goldman Sachs economists said in the report, “Instead, he might point out that FOMC has the ability to deal with the various risks facing its dual mission, but would emphasize that the downside risks in the labor market have increased after the July employment report was released, while reiterating that the impact of tariffs on price levels may be only one-time. ”

They added: “We don’t think he will signal a clear September rate cut, but this speech should show the market that he will likely support the rate cut. ”

As August data will still be released before the September meeting, it is unlikely that Powell will send a clear signal.

According to data from the FedWatch tool of CMEGroup, federal funds rate futures traders lowered their expectations for a September rate cut before Powell's speech. The market currently expects a 74% chance of a September rate cut, down from 82% on Wednesday. At the same time, the market expects a cumulative rate cut of 49 basis points by the end of the year, below thisThe first 54 basis points.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Thursday that he still believes the Fed can cut interest rates once this year, but also pointed out that there is great uncertainty in this view as the economy undergoes major changes.

Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid said there seems to be no need to rush to cut interest rates at the moment, as inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market remains stable.

Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamak also said that considering the current economic situation, inflation problems are still continuing, so now is not the right time to cut interest rates.

At the same time, the U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Fed Director Cook, who is a senior official who has notified Fed Chairman Powell and urged him to remove Cook from the board of directors, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

Trump called on Cook to resign on Wednesday, citing allegations from members of his administration over her mortgages she holds in Michigan and Georgia.

International News

The U.S. government launches an investigation into wind turbines that may pave the way for imposing more tariffs

The Trump administration launches an investigation into imported wind turbines and their www.xm-links.components, a move that may pave the way for further imposing tariffs on these clean energy www.xm-links.components. According to a notice released by the U.S. Department of www.xm-links.commerce on Thursday, the agency launched a national security survey on August 13 to assess whether wind-related imported products damage national security and weaken domestic production capacity. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of www.xm-links.commerce announced that it would include wind turbines and related parts on the list of products that apply to the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs.

Trump will appoint Airbnb co-founder as the first government design director

U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to create a new position of government chief design officer and appoint Airbnb co-founder Joe Jebia to the position, according to people familiar with the matter. The move will allow Jebia to play a leading role in redesigning government forms and processes through a new national design studio based in the White House. As the first chief design officer in the United States, his mission is to “prioritize improving websites and physical sites that have a significant impact on Americans’ daily lives,” according to the text of the executive order issued by the White House. This task may include income tax returns, social security applications, health insurance registration, immigration services and other heavily used government services.

The U.S. military seeks to reserve cobalt for the first time in decades

The U.S. Department of Defense is planning to purchase cobalt for its strategic reserves for the first time in decades, the latest move to strengthen the domestic supply of key metals. According to tender documents released this week, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency plans to purchase up to 7,500 tons of cobalt over the next five years, with a contract value of up to $500 million. This is the first time since 1990 that the Defense Logistics Agency has sought to purchase cobalt, a person familiar with the matter said. In recent years, demand has risen significantly due to the application of cobalt in battery manufacturing, but it is also crucial in a range of military system applications. Cobalt-based alloys are used in ammunition and jet engines, and at the same time, this goldIt is also indispensable for the manufacture of magnets used on aircraft flaps, landing gear and flight control surfaces.

British, France, Italy and other countries and the EU condemn Israel's approval of the new settlement housing plan

The foreign ministers of 22 countries including the United Kingdom, France, Italy and the EU's senior representative of foreign affairs and security policies issued a joint statement on the 21st, strongly condemning Israel's plan to approve the construction of more than 3,400 settlement housing units in the "E1 area" of the West Bank. The joint statement posted on the UK government website said that Israel's decision to approve the plan "is unacceptable and violates international law. We strongly condemn the decision and call for immediate revocation". The joint statement said the plan had no benefit to the Israeli people. Instead, it has the potential to undermine security, fuel more violence and instability, and “take us further from peace.” The unilateral action of the government undermines "our www.xm-links.common aspiration for security and prosperity in the Middle East", and the government must stop settlement construction, www.xm-links.comply with UN Security Council resolution 2334, and lift fiscal restrictions on the Palestinian National Authority. In addition, a spokesperson for the British Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 21st saying that the British Foreign Ministry also summoned the Israeli ambassador to the UK on the same day for the plan to build settlement housing in the "E1 District".

The Prime Minister said he would arbitrage under Israeli conditions

On the evening of August 21, local time, in the early morning of today (August 22), Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a video statement saying that he had instructed the start of negotiations immediately to release all Israeli detained personnel in the Gaza Strip and end the war on "According to Israel." In addition, he said that the Israeli army's plan to take over Gaza City has been approved.

U.S. mortgage rates are at their lowest level since October last year

U.S. mortgage rates remain stable after four consecutive weeks of decline. Freddie Mac said in a statement that the average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans was 6.58%, the same as last week and fell to its lowest level since October last week. Interest rates have fallen low enough over the past few months that may attract some hesitant home buyers to give up on the wait and see. In parts of the property backlog, sellers are willing to negotiate and help with closing costs and other concessions. But affordability remains a serious obstacle, especially for first-time home buyers. Other data show that second-hand home sales rose in July due to slowing price increases. But that doesn't mean the market has become affordable: some institutions say house prices have soared by more than 50% since the beginning of 2020. "Higher interest rates weaken the actual purchasing power of typical American families. This dynamic forces many buyers to adjust their expectations, either to find smaller houses, move further away, or simply delay their dream of buying a house." The Justice Department will investigate Fed governor Cook urged Powell to remove him from office.The Justice Department plans to launch an investigation into Fed Director Lisa Cook, and a senior official sent a letter to Fed Chairman Powell on Thursday to inform him of the matter and urged him to remove Cook from the board of directors. The letter www.xm-links.comes from Justice Department official Ed Martin, who has led a similar investigation into California Senator Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Martin said in the letter that the Cook case needs to be "further review". "Here, I urge you to move Ms. Cook out of the council immediately," Martin wrote. "Do it today and don't wait until it's too late! No American thinks she should continue to hold this position in this situation." After Trump called on her to resign, Cook said on Wednesday that she would remain at the Fed.

Domestic News

Wang Yi: The 21st century should be an era for Asia and South Asia to accelerate development and revitalize.

On August 21, 2025, local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central www.xm-links.committee and Foreign Minister, met with reporters after the 6th China-Pakistan Foreign Minister Strategic Dialogue with Pakistani Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Dahl in Islamabad. A reporter asked Pakistan is the last stop for Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the three South Asian countries. How does China view the current situation in South Asia and the role of China-Pakistan cooperation. Wang Yi said that South Asian countries have a long history, splendid civilization, large populations and huge development potential. They are close neighbors connected by China and an important direction for China to build a www.xm-links.community with a shared future in the surrounding areas. This trip visited India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and I felt that South Asia has great development potential and sufficient potential. The 21st century should be an era for Asia and South Asia to accelerate its development and revitalization. Wang Yi pointed out that although the national conditions of India, Azerbaijan and Bahrain are different, they all realize that development is the top priority of all countries and the greatest www.xm-links.common divisor of the three countries and even the regions. A peaceful, stable, developed and prosperous South Asia is in line with the www.xm-links.common interests of all parties and the expectations of people of all countries. All three countries are willing to strengthen good-neighborly friendship with China, the largest neighbor, and deepen exchanges and cooperation, and seek mutual benefit and win-win results. Faced with the pressure of unilateral bullying, the three countries believe that multilateralism should be adhered to, safeguard their legitimate rights and interests, and strive to promote an equal and orderly world multipolarization and inclusive economic globalization. China will be a trusted partner of South Asian countries and a solid support.

Low-altitude sightseeing tours have exploded. Low-altitude economic study tours have seen a blowout growth

This summer, many airlines in Shenzhen have launched new low-altitude sightseeing routes, allowing citizens and tourists to enjoy the unique experience of "seeing Shenzhen in the air and seeing the Bay Area in the cloud". A relevant person in charge of an airline in Shenzhen, Guangdong said that flight volume orders increased by about 30% year-on-year, of which parent-child orders accounted for about 60%. In addition to experiencing low-altitude sightseeing, low-altitude economic study tours for student groups have also shown a blowout growth in Shenzhen, Guangdong. Students enter the cockpit through study tours and explore the infinite possibilities of low-altitude economy.

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