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The US dollar hovers at 147 mark against the yen, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech to announce the Japanese CPI

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar hovers at 147 mark against the Japanese yen, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech and the announcement of the Japanese CPI." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The US dollar against the Japanese yen maintained a narrow consolidation on Thursday, with trading around 147.40. Investors remain cautious before major events are announced, especially the speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be speaking at Jackson Hole's annual meeting, which may determine market expectations for a rate cut in September.

In the United States, the August S&PGlobalPMI data will be released in the European session on Thursday, and it is expected to have a short-term impact on the US dollar trend. The US dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering around 98.30, indicating that investors are on the verge of waiting and watching before key data and policies. In Japan, the market is concerned about the national CPI data released on Friday. The core CPI after excluding fresh food is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, which will become an important reference for the Bank of Japan's subsequent monetary policy. If inflation data is higher than expected, it may intensify the market's bet on a strengthening yen.

The US dollar has fluctuated between 146.22 and 148.52 for nearly three weeks. Currently, trading is around 147.56 on the 20-day index moving average (EMA), indicating that the trend is biased towards sideways consolidation.

The relative strength indicator (RSI) on the 14th fluctuated in the range of 40-60, reflecting the lack of direction in the market. On the upward trend, if it breaks through the July 16 high of 149.19, it is expected to challenge the 150 integer mark and the March 28 high of 151.20.

In the downward trend, if it falls below the July 24 low of 145.85, the target will be at the July 7 low of 144.22 and the July 3 low of 143.45. Overall, the US dollar and the Japanese yen remain volatile before key data and policy events, and the breakthrough direction may depend on Powell's speech and the results of Japan's CPI. EditedCommentary Views:

The current trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is in a critical range and lacks breakthrough momentum. If the Fed releases a strong interest rate cut signal, the US dollar may be under pressure and the yen may be supported; on the contrary, if Powell emphasizes that inflation risks are high, the US dollar will be boosted, pushing the exchange rate toward 150.

From the technical perspective, the 147 mark is a short-term watershed, and we should focus on the trend signals brought by the range breakthrough.

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